The UK is now set for an "In - Out" vote on whether to remain a member of the European Union (EU) on 23 June 2016
Polling and bookmakers’ odds imply that the most likely result is that the UK will stay in the EU, but there is a significant risk that we will leave and clients should consider what that might mean for them were it to happen.
In a survey of nearly 200 clients active in the European investment market carried out last week, 73% said that 'Brexit' would make the UK a less attractive place to invest (an increase compared with our 2015 survey) against 7% who thought it would increase the UK's attractiveness.
Should we get a "Leave" vote, the EU treaty allows two years for negotiations on the terms of exit once a country has served notice. This would result in an extended period of uncertainty for investors.
On the other hand, if the UK votes to remain in the EU as expected, we think that there would be a ‘catch up’ effect in property market decisions in the second half of 2016 and when we look back at 2016 as a whole, investment activity might simply look more volatile, rather than lower, than normal.